#10 Indiana vs. #7 Notre Dame odds, analysis, prediction.
Indiana @ Notre Dame Betting Odds
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: -7.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -275
Indiana Hoosiers: +7.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +220
Over Under: 52.5 (-110)
Odds updated as of 12/19/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
The College Football Playoff is set to make history as Notre Dame and Indiana face off in the first-ever on-campus playoff game, renewing an intrastate rivalry that has been dormant for over three decades. Separated by just 199 miles, the two teams have met only 29 times, with Notre Dame leading the series 22-7. This matchup brings together two programs with drastically different trajectories and histories. While Notre Dame is steeped in tradition and national championships, Indiana has risen from underdog status to become one of the most compelling stories of the season.
This game holds significance beyond the rivalry itself. It marks the first non-NBC broadcast of a Notre Dame home game since 1990 and serves as a showcase of how expanded playoffs can bring new excitement to college football. For Notre Dame, it’s a chance to reaffirm their place among the sport’s elite. For Indiana, it’s an opportunity to prove they belong on the national stage. With both teams entering the game on a hot streak, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Here’s an in-depth look at how each team can emerge victorious.
How Indiana can win:
Red Zone Efficiency
Indiana’s red-zone offense has been nothing short of elite this season, converting on an astounding 94% of their trips inside the 20-yard line, ranking third in the nation, scoring touchdowns on 77% of those red-zone opportunities. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been the centerpiece of this success, boasting an FBS-leading 271.9 passer efficiency rating in the red zone. His precision under pressure has resulted in 19 touchdown passes without a single interception, which is tied for third-most nationally.
Rourke’s red-zone passing game has been characterized by both accuracy and decision-making. He has completed 72.7% of his red-zone passes, the highest among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts. His 10.3 yards per attempt in the red zone further highlights Indiana’s ability to stretch defenses, even in compressed field situations. This effectiveness has been bolstered by the play of wide receivers who excel in contested catch situations and a creative offensive scheme that frequently isolates mismatches.
Notre Dame’s defense, while formidable, presents a significant challenge in this area. The Fighting Irish rank ninth in opponent red-zone scoring percentage, allowing opponents to convert just 73.3% of their opportunities. However, their Achilles’ heel has been preventing touchdowns once opponents get inside the 20, as they allow touchdowns on 62% of red-zone trips, a figure that ranks just 39th nationally. This suggests that while Notre Dame can limit overall scoring opportunities, teams that do reach the red zone often capitalize.
For Indiana to maximize its chances, they must continue executing their multifaceted red-zone offense. Key strategies include relying on Rourke’s ability to diagnose defensive schemes and find his top targets, as well as utilizing play-action and misdirection to counter Notre Dame’s disciplined linebackers and secondary. Additionally, Indiana’s offensive line must maintain its stellar pass protection, as Rourke has taken only two sacks in the red zone all season.
Control the Line of Scrimmage on Defense
Indiana’s defensive success this season has been anchored by their ability to dominate the line of scrimmage. The Hoosiers lead the nation in rushing defense, allowing just 70.8 yards per game and a mere 2.5 yards per carry. This suffocating run defense has neutralized even the most formidable ground games, forcing opposing offenses to become one-dimensional. What makes Indiana’s approach particularly impressive is their ability to generate disruption up front without committing extra defenders to the box or relying on blitz-heavy schemes. Their front seven, led by standout defensive linemen James Carpenter and Andre Carter, consistently wins individual matchups, setting the tone for a physical and disciplined unit.
Against Notre Dame, this will be critical. The Fighting Irish average 224.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 10th nationally, and feature one of the most efficient rushing attacks in college football. Dual-threat quarterback Riley Leonard has rushed for 721 yards and 14 touchdowns, providing an additional layer of complexity for Indiana’s defense. However, Indiana has been exceptional at limiting mobile quarterbacks, holding opponents to negative-63 rushing yards on quarterback runs this season, the best mark in the nation. If the Hoosiers can contain Leonard and disrupt Notre Dame’s offensive rhythm on the ground, they’ll force the Irish into less favorable passing situations.
Maintaining gap discipline and tackling effectively will be paramount. Indiana’s linebackers and safeties, who excel in run fits, will need to be quick to the ball without overcommitting to play-action fakes. The Hoosiers’ ability to win early downs and set up third-and-long situations will put Notre Dame’s offense in difficult positions, playing directly into Indiana’s defensive strengths.
Exploit Notre Dame’s Vulnerability to Quick Pressure
While Notre Dame’s offensive line is traditionally a strength, it has shown vulnerability this season, particularly in handling quick pressure. The Irish rank 129th nationally in average time to pressure allowed, giving Riley Leonard just 2.41 seconds on average before opposing defenders reach him. This is a concerning statistic against an Indiana defense that ranks third in quarterback pressure rate (39%) despite blitzing on less than 25% of their snaps. Indiana’s ability to generate pressure with just their front four has allowed them to drop more defenders into coverage, creating a balanced and highly effective defense.
The Hoosiers’ pass rush, led by Carter and fellow lineman Jermaine Johnson, excels at collapsing pockets from both the edge and the interior. Against Notre Dame, their strategy will likely center on attacking the Irish’s weaker spots on the line, using stunts and twists to create confusion and exploit breakdowns in communication. The key will be preventing Leonard from escaping the pocket, as his ability to extend plays with his legs poses a significant threat.
By forcing Leonard into hurried throws, Indiana can create turnover opportunities or drive-killing incompletions. The Hoosiers’ secondary, which ranks ninth nationally in passing yards allowed per game (174.0), thrives when their defensive line disrupts timing. Additionally, limiting Leonard’s ability to set his feet and scan the field will make it more difficult for Notre Dame to execute their deep passing game, an area where the Irish have struggled for consistency this season.
If Indiana can effectively collapse the pocket and maintain gap integrity, they’ll not only limit Notre Dame’s offensive efficiency but also put their own offense in favorable field position to capitalize on mistakes. This ability to disrupt Notre Dame’s offense at its foundation could be a game-changing factor in the matchup.
How Notre Dame can win:
Dominate the “Middle 8” Minutes
Notre Dame has been exceptional in controlling the “Middle 8”—the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. At home, the Fighting Irish have outscored opponents 52-0 in these critical moments, a statistic that highlights their ability to seize momentum and create separation when it matters most. This dominance stems from disciplined play, strategic time management, and the ability to adjust to opponents on the fly.
Executing in the Middle 8 is particularly important against Indiana, a team that has struggled during this stretch on the road, posting a -5-point margin. Notre Dame’s offense must sustain drives before halftime to wear down Indiana’s top-ranked rushing defense and set up scoring opportunities. On defense, timely stops can prevent Indiana from gaining momentum heading into the locker room. Additionally, Notre Dame's coaching staff, led by Marcus Freeman, has excelled at making adjustments at halftime, allowing the team to come out strong in the third quarter.
Winning the Middle 8 will require Riley Leonard to lead efficient drives and maintain composure under pressure. Notre Dame’s special teams could also play a pivotal role in pinning Indiana deep in their own territory, setting the stage for the defense to force quick stops and create additional scoring opportunities.
Leverage the Ground Game
Notre Dame’s rushing attack has been the backbone of its offense, averaging 224.8 yards per game (10th nationally) and 6.3 yards per carry. The offensive line, led by All-American candidates Joe Alt and Blake Fisher, has consistently opened up lanes for running backs Audric Estimé and Logan Diggs, while quarterback Riley Leonard has added a dynamic dual-threat element. Leonard’s 721 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns make him one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in the country.
Facing Indiana’s top-ranked rushing defense, which allows just 70.8 yards per game and 2.5 yards per carry, will be a formidable challenge. However, Notre Dame has the physicality and depth to wear down the Hoosiers’ front seven over the course of the game. Establishing the run early will be crucial to keeping Indiana’s aggressive pass rush at bay and setting up play-action opportunities.
Notre Dame’s offensive success will hinge on their ability to win individual battles in the trenches. The Irish must focus on exploiting Indiana’s defensive tendencies with misdirection plays and creative schemes that utilize Leonard’s mobility. Sustained drives that chew up the clock and keep Indiana’s high-powered offense off the field will be vital in controlling the pace of the game.
Pressure Kurtis Rourke and Disrupt Indiana’s Passing Game
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been phenomenal under pressure, leading the FBS in passer efficiency when blitzed (160.9) and excelling in the red zone with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions. For Notre Dame to succeed, they must disrupt Rourke’s rhythm without overcommitting to blitzes. The Irish defense, led by Isaiah Foskey and Jordan Botelho on the edge, ranks seventh nationally in opponent third-down conversion rate (30.6%) and is well-equipped to create havoc in the backfield.
Generating pressure while maintaining coverage integrity will be critical. Notre Dame’s secondary, which ranks third in passing yards allowed per game (157.9) and has given up just one touchdown on passes of 20-plus yards, is built to counter Indiana’s deep passing attack. The Irish safeties and cornerbacks must stay disciplined against Rourke’s ability to extend plays and find receivers downfield.
Key to Notre Dame’s strategy will be limiting Indiana’s explosive plays. The Hoosiers excel in stretching the field, but the Irish have been one of the nation’s best at forcing opponents into long, methodical drives. By creating third-and-long situations and pressuring Rourke into hurried decisions, Notre Dame can capitalize on mistakes and shift the momentum in their favor. Additionally, forcing Indiana into field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone will be critical to minimizing their offensive output.
If Notre Dame can consistently disrupt Indiana’s passing game and force turnovers, they’ll not only slow down the Hoosiers’ potent offense but also create opportunities for their own offense to control the game’s tempo.
Prediction…
CFB Playoff Pass - $29.99
The College Football Playoff is finally here, and the excitement is unmatched! With our exclusive College Football Playoff Pass, you’ll gain access to our algorithm’s expert projections for the entire playoff run. Stay ahead with detailed predictions powered by advanced analytics. Visit our store today to purchase your pass! If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us on Instagram or Telegram.
Projections are always posted on our Instagram, emailed, and sent directly to our telegram group ahead of game time.
Follow us on Instagram @CodeTheOdds
Join our community on Telegram!
links below