Bills vs. Rams odds, analysis, prediction.
Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills delivers a vicious stiff arm to Nick Scott #33 of the Los Angeles Rams
Bills @ Rams betting odds
Buffalo Bills: -4.5 (-102)
MoneyLine: -196
Los Angeles Rams: +4.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +164
Over Under: 49.5 (-110)
Odds updated as of 12/3/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
Fresh off a dominant victory over the San Francisco 49ers, the Buffalo Bills enter Week 14 brimming with confidence as they prepare to take on Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams, coming off a thrilling Week 13 win over the New Orleans Saints, remain in the thick of the NFC West race, sitting just one game behind the Seattle Seahawks.
For the Bills, the stakes are just as high. While they’ve already secured the AFC East title, they’re eyeing the top spot in the conference. Sitting just one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs—and holding the tiebreaker thanks to an earlier win over KC—Buffalo has its sights set on securing home-field advantage in the playoffs.
With the Bills entering this matchup as road favorites, what’s the best way to approach this game from a betting perspective?
How The Bills Can Cover:
The Buffalo Bills clinched their fifth straight AFC East title with a dominant 35-10 win over the 49ers, fueled by 222 rushing yards and a historic performance from Josh Allen, who recorded passing, rushing, and receiving touchdowns. With their seventh straight win, the Bills look unstoppable. As they head into Week 14, let’s analyze how they can keep this streak going.
Offensive Firepower Meet Defensive Vulnerabilities
The Buffalo Bills’ offense remains one of the NFL’s most efficient, averaging 29.6 points per game (2nd) and 0.494 points per play (2nd). Josh Allen has been the driving force, throwing for 20 touchdowns with only five interceptions while completing 64.6% of his passes. The offense has evolved with new stars stepping up, including wide receivers Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman, who have become reliable targets for Allen. Complementing the passing game is a strong rushing attack, led by James Cook’s 596 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns, helping the Bills rank 11th in rushing yards per game (127.6).
This balanced offense is well-equipped to exploit a struggling Rams defense that ranks 25th in yards per game allowed (359.1) and 28th against the run (144.2 yards per game). Los Angeles also struggles against the pass, allowing 7.9 yards per attempt (29th), creating opportunities for Allen to stretch the field and pick apart their secondary. With Buffalo excelling in red-zone efficiency (3rd, 66.67%) and fourth-down conversions (1st, 86.67%), the Bills are poised to capitalize on scoring opportunities and maintain their high-scoring performance against a vulnerable Rams defense.
Neutralize the Rams’ Offensive Threats
The Buffalo Bills’ defense will need to focus on containing the Rams’ key offensive threats, particularly the formidable receiving duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Kupp remains one of the league’s elite wide receivers, excelling in route running and creating separation, while Nacua has emerged as a consistent producer, capable of making contested catches and racking up significant yards after the catch. Together, they account for a significant portion of the Rams’ 230.8 passing yards per game (11th), and limiting their production will be critical for Buffalo’s success.
The Bills’ defense, which allows just 199.7 passing yards per game (8th) and ranks 3rd in opponent yards per pass attempt (6.6), has excelled at neutralizing opposing passing games. Their ability to disrupt quarterbacks starts with a strong pass rush, led by Greg Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa, who have helped generate 31 sacks and force 21 turnovers, the second-most in the league. This pressure will be essential against Matthew Stafford, who has been inconsistent this season. Stafford has been sacked at a 6.39% rate (15th), and his passer rating drops significantly under pressure, falling to 63.8 compared to 92.4 in clean pockets. Additionally, Stafford’s seven interceptions highlight his vulnerability when forced into hurried decisions.
On the ground, the Rams’ rushing attack, led by Kyren Williams, has been underwhelming, ranking 26th in rushing yards per game (100.2) and 24th in yards per carry (4.1). Buffalo’s run defense, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry (3rd), is well-suited to neutralize Williams and make the Rams one-dimensional. If the Bills can eliminate the threat of the run, they can focus their defensive efforts on containing Kupp and Nacua.
Controlling the Tempo Through the Ground Game
The Bills’ rushing attack has been a vital part of their success, ranking 11th in the league with 127.6 rushing yards per game and 3rd in rushing touchdowns per game (1.8). James Cook has been the standout performer in the backfield, showcasing his explosiveness with 703 rushing yards on 151 carries (4.7 yards per attempt) and 12 total touchdowns this season. Complementing Cook’s dynamic playmaking ability is Buffalo’s commitment to balance on offense, as they rank 7th in the NFL in rush play percentage (48.05%). This commitment allows the Bills to control the tempo of games and wear down opposing defenses over four quarters.
The Los Angeles Rams’ run defense presents a prime opportunity for Buffalo to impose their will on the ground. The Rams rank 28th in rushing yards allowed per game (144.2) and 21st in opponent yards per carry (4.6), indicating consistent struggles to stop the run. Opponents have exploited these weaknesses all season, averaging 31.3 rushing attempts per game against Los Angeles, the most in the NFL. This vulnerability aligns perfectly with Buffalo’s offensive strength, as the Bills rank 7th in rushing attempts per game (28.8), showing their ability to sustain drives and control the clock.
Buffalo’s ability to dominate time of possession will be crucial in this matchup. The Rams rank 28th in time of possession (47.84%) due to their inability to sustain drives, highlighted by their 30th-ranked third-down conversion rate (32.58%). By keeping the Rams’ offense off the field, Buffalo can limit opportunities for Matthew Stafford and key playmakers like Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua to find rhythm.
How The Rams Can Cover:
The Los Angeles Rams (6-6) face a daunting challenge against the Buffalo Bills (10-2), one of the hottest teams in the NFL with a seven-game winning streak. Despite being underdogs, the Rams have paths to success if they capitalize on their strengths, exploit Buffalo’s weaknesses, and improve in critical areas. Here’s how the Rams could win or at least cover the spread.
Leverage 12-Personnel to Create Offensive Mismatches.
The Rams are undefeated this season when deploying 12-personnel (two tight ends) on 15% or more of their offensive snaps. This package provides additional blocking for the run game while giving Matthew Stafford the tools to create mismatches in the passing attack. With Tyler Higbee on injured reserve, the Rams must rely on their depth at tight end, but their ability to execute in this formation could be a game-changer.
Using 12-personnel offers flexibility for both running and passing plays. It helps create balanced looks for the offensive line, making it harder for Buffalo’s defense to key in on a specific side of the line. In the passing game, this package creates single-coverage opportunities for Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, who have combined for over 1,400 receiving yards this season.
The Rams must also lean on Kyren Williams in this package to establish a consistent run game. Despite ranking 26th in rushing yards per game (100.2) and 24th in yards per carry (4.1), the Rams can use extra blockers to exploit Buffalo’s aggressiveness up front. This will also open up play-action opportunities, where Stafford thrives, helping neutralize Buffalo’s pass rush.
Exploit Buffalo’s Aggressive Pass Rush
The Bills’ defense thrives on pressure, ranking among the NFL’s best this season. However, their aggressiveness can be used against them. Matthew Stafford, who has thrown for 2,557 yards and 13 touchdowns this season, must emphasize quick, efficient throws to mitigate Buffalo’s pass rush. This makes the play of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua essential. Kupp’s elite route-running and ability to find soft spots in coverage will be critical for converting third downs, while Nacua’s physicality and contested-catch ability provide Stafford with a reliable target against tight coverage. The Bills’ secondary, despite allowing only 6.6 yards per pass attempt (3rd), lacks the shutdown corners needed to fully contain both receivers. If the offensive line can give Stafford time and the Rams’ passing attack emphasizes quick routes and intermediate throws, they can expose Buffalo’s defense and sustain drives.
Prioritize Stopping James Cook
The Rams’ run defense has been one of their most significant vulnerabilities this season, recent performances highlight this issue, with Alvin Kamara rushing for 112 yards in Week 13 and Saquon Barkley dominating in Week 12. The Rams must make stopping James Cook their top defensive priority. He’s coming off a strong performance against San Francisco, rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown.
For the Rams to have a chance at neutralizing Cook, they must focus on stacking the box and improving their tackling efficiency. Linebackers and safeties will need to play closer to the line of scrimmage to close off running lanes. They need to force Cook into situations where he is less effective. This means limiting his ability to pick up chunk yardage on early downs and setting up longer second and third downs for Buffalo’s offense. While the Bills convert 42.66% of third downs (8th), forcing them into obvious passing situations increases the chances of limiting their drives and potentially creating turnovers.
Algorithm’s Projection:
To ensure the highest level of accuracy, we run our algorithm as close to game time as possible, factoring in real-time variables like weather conditions and last-minute injury updates.
Projections are posted on our Instagram and are sent directly to our telegram group ahead of game time.
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