Lions vs. Packers odds, analysis, prediction.
Jahmyr Gibbs, #26 of the Detroit Lions, runs with the ball as Keisean Nixon, #25 of the Green Bay Packers, works to make a tackle
Packers @ Lions Betting Odds
Green Bay Packers: +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +150
Detroit Lions: -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -178
Over Under: 51.5 (-110)
Odds updated as of 12/3/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
In Week 14, a pivotal NFC North showdown will take place on Thursday Night Football as the Green Bay Packers face off against the Detroit Lions. Both teams are coming off Thanksgiving Day victories, with Detroit narrowly defeating Chicago 23-20 and Green Bay comfortably beating Miami 30-17. The Packers, who hold a record of 9-3 and sit third in the division, are currently on a three-game winning streak and boast a 4-1 record on the road this season. Leading the division, the Lions have an impressive 11-1 record and are the top seed in the NFC, having secured 10 consecutive wins and a 5-1 home record in 2024.
How The Packers Can Cover:
The Green Bay Packers' week 9 loss to the Detroit Lions was a sobering reminder of how self-inflicted errors can derail a game. Head Coach Matt LaFleur described it as a series of "self-inflicted wounds" that cost them dearly. As they prepare for a rematch, let's delve into what the Packers can do to turn the tables on the Lions and secure a victory.
Discipline and Penalty Reduction
in their last matchup with the Detroit Lions, the Green Bay Packers were significantly impacted by “self-inflicted wounds,” with the timing of these mishaps proving particularly costly. It started early when the Packers were hit with a personal foul on the opening kickoff return, immediately setting them up with poor field position. During a critical red zone drive, a false start penalty and a dropped pass on third down stymied the Packers' offensive momentum, forcing them to settle for a field goal instead of potentially scoring a touchdown. Even more damaging was an offsides penalty on a fourth-and-goal, which moved the ball to the one-yard line, turning what could have been a defensive stand into a touchdown for Detroit.
By the end of the game, the Packers had been flagged for 10 penalties totaling 67 yards and suffered at least six dropped passes, many of which occurred on critical third downs or near the end zone. These errors contributed to their inability to score a touchdown until the final four minutes of the game. Every time the Packers moved into scoring position, they were derailed by false starts, bad snaps, or mishandled plays.
As the Packers prepare for their rematch, they’re determined to clean up these errors and play a sharper, more disciplined game. Head Coach Matt LaFleur's December record of 15-3 offers hope, as his teams have historically found ways to elevate their play late in the season
Control the ground game.
The Packers outgained the Lions significantly during their week 9 matchup, posting 411 total yards to Detroit's 261. Notably, the Packers’ rushing attack, which has grown stronger throughout the season, managed to tally 138 yards against a Lions defense that ranks 5th in the NFL, allowing less than 95 rushing yards per game on average. This impressive performance against a defense that prides itself on stopping the run highlights the Packers' potential to control the ground game.
Leverage Deep Passing Game
Jordan Love has demonstrated a strong arm and the ability to connect on deep throws. Love has completed 58.9% of his passes when throwing the deep ball (25+ yards) this season, connecting for six touchdowns on such passes. Given the Lions' defense will be focused on stopping the run, Love and the Packers should exploit this by using the play action pass, targeting deeper routes, and utilizing spread formations, which help create favorable matchups on the outside. Look for the Packers to hit a big play late in the game on a play-action pass.
How The Lions Can Cover:
The Lions ended their seven-game Thanksgiving losing streak and now aim to defeat the Packers again to move closer to clinching the NFC North. A win would mark the first time in franchise history they’ve won the division in back-to-back seasons. Having already beaten the Packers at Lambeau in Week 9, Detroit now defends its home turf at Ford Field. However, Green Bay is surging, with Jordan Love healthy and the team riding a three-game winning streak. With the Lions two games up and holding the tiebreaker, this game could shake up the division. Let’s dive into what the Lions need to do to secure another win.
Plug and Play
The Detroit Lions have been navigating significant injuries to their front seven throughout the season, including the loss of standout pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who has been sidelined since Week 6 with a broken tibia and fibula. Starting linebackers Alex Anzalone (forearm) and Derrick Barnes (knee) are also on injured reserve, alongside defensive tackle Marcus Davenport (triceps), who was lost early in the season. Despite these significant injuries, the Lions have maintained an elite defense, allowing just 16.9 points per game—ranking fourth in the NFL. The Lions’ ability to overcome injury this season will be tested even further, as star linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez (knee) and defensive tackle Mekhi Wingo (knee) were both placed on injured reserve ahead of Thursday’s game. Additionally, starting defensive tackle DJ Reader and starting defensive end Josh Paschal are listed as questionable. To maintain their defensive dominance, lesser-known players like Alim McNeill, Pat O’Connor, and Brodric Martin will need to anchor the defensive line. The recent acquisition of veteran linebacker Kwon Alexander will also be pivotal, as his experience and leadership can help stabilize a unit that has been hit hard by injuries. Together, these players must rise to the occasion to keep the Lions' defense performing at an elite level in their crucial matchup against the Packers.
Dominant Rushing Attack
The Detroit Lions' rushing duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been exceptional this season, propelling the team's ground attack to rank fourth in the NFL, averaging 154.4 rushing yards per game. This balanced ground attack has been pivotal in setting the tone for their offense, controlling the clock, and alleviating pressure on quarterback Jared Goff. Gibbs, one of the league’s most dynamic backs, has rushed for 973 yards on 163 carries, averaging an impressive 6.0 yards per carry with 10 touchdowns this season, ranking 4th in the NFL for rushing yards. His explosiveness was on display Week 9 against the Packers, where he posted 95 yards on 18 carries, including a touchdown. David Montgomery, who leads the team with 11 rushing touchdowns, brings a physical edge to the Lions’ backfield. Excelling in short-yardage and goal-line situations, Montgomery is the perfect complement to Gibbs’ explosive big-play ability. Montgomery contributed 70 yards on 15 carries in the Week 9 matchup against Green Bay, showcasing the duo’s ability to dominate on the ground. With Green Bay on a three-game winning streak and their defense gaining momentum, Detroit’s rushing attack will be pivotal in setting the tone offensively while keeping their injury-riddled defense off the field, limiting its exposure, and helping to control the game’s tempo. For the Lions to secure another key divisional win and solidify their NFC North lead, Gibbs and Montgomery will need to deliver yet another dominant performance.
Ride The Wave
The Detroit Lions have surged to an 11-1 record, propelled by a 10-game winning streak that ties a franchise record set in 1934! This remarkable performance has positioned the Detroit Lions as the No. 1 seed in the NFC, solidifying their status as a leading Super Bowl contender. Analysts across the league have consistently ranked them as the best team in the NFL, praising their dominance on both sides of the ball and their ability to overcome significant injuries. A significant factor in the Lions' success has been their dominance at home. Their offense leads the NFL, averaging an impressive 35.2 points per game at Ford Field this season. Jared Goff has been particularly effective at home, posting a stellar 12-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio and a 115.3 passer rating, compared to a 10-to-6 ratio and 105.3 rating in away games. Goff’s stellar performance at home, coupled with the team’s 10-game winning streak, gives Detroit all the momentum heading into this critical divisional matchup. The Lions will look to continue their wave of success and further solidify their standing as the NFC’s top seed by securing another victory against a surging Packers team.
Algorithm’s Projection:
To ensure the highest level of accuracy, we run our algorithm as close to game time as possible, factoring in real-time variables like weather conditions and last-minute injury updates.
Projections are posted on our Instagram and are sent directly to our telegram group ahead of game time.
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