Broncos vs. Bengals odds, analysis, prediction.
Broncos @ Bengals Betting Odds
Cincinnati Bengals: -3 (-110)
Moneyline: -181
Denver Broncos: +3 (-110)
Moneyline: +150
Over Under: 50 (-110)
Odds updated as of 12/27/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
The Week 17 matchup between the Denver Broncos (9-6) and the Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) carries significant playoff implications for both teams. Denver, currently in a “win and you’re in” situation, aims to secure their first postseason berth since 2015. Meanwhile, the Bengals, riding a three-game winning streak, must win out and hope Denver loses its final two games to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Joe Burrow is playing at an MVP-caliber level, leading the league with 4,229 passing yards and 39 touchdowns while throwing only eight interceptions. His connection with Ja’Marr Chase, who leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,510) and touchdowns (16), will be crucial. However, Denver counters with one of the league’s best defenses, allowing just 18.7 points per game (4th) and excelling in the red zone, where they permit touchdowns only 45.2% of the time (2nd).
For Denver, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has exceeded expectations, throwing for 3,235 yards and 22 touchdowns while adding 352 rushing yards and 4 scores. However, turnovers have been an issue lately, with Nix throwing five interceptions in the last three games. Denver’s defense has been key to their success, ranking 2nd in yards per play allowed (4.9) and amassing 51 sacks, the second-most in the league. The Bengals, despite a high-powered offense averaging 28.2 points per game (6th), have struggled defensively, allowing 26.2 points per game (28th). This clash will feature a battle of strengths—Denver’s defense versus Cincinnati’s offense—making it a must-watch game with playoff stakes for both teams.
How the Broncos can win:
Neutralize Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase
The matchup between Patrick Surtain II and Ja’Marr Chase will be one of the game’s most critical battles. Chase leads the NFL in receiving yards (1,510) and touchdowns (16) and has developed near-telepathic chemistry with Joe Burrow. Surtain, one of the league’s premier cornerbacks, has allowed a passer rating of just 39.1 when targeted, which is lower than if opposing quarterbacks threw the ball into the ground every play. Denver will need Surtain to be at his absolute best to limit Chase’s explosive plays. However, Surtain may not shadow Chase exclusively, leaving Riley Moss, who is returning from injury, to take on some coverage responsibilities. This could create opportunities for Chase if Burrow identifies favorable matchups.
Denver’s ability to neutralize Chase also depends on their pass rush. With 51 sacks this season, the Broncos rank second in the NFL, and players like Zach Allen and Nik Bonitto must generate consistent pressure on Burrow. If the Broncos can disrupt Burrow’s timing and force quick throws, it will not only limit Chase’s impact but also reduce opportunities for secondary options like Tee Higgins. Denver’s defensive line must dominate the trenches, particularly against a Bengals offensive line that ranks 16th in sack percentage allowed (6.23%). This pressure could force Burrow into mistakes or rushed throws that Surtain and the Broncos’ secondary can capitalize on.
Capitalize on Cincinnati’s Defensive Weaknesses
The Bengals’ defense has struggled throughout the season, ranking 28th in points allowed per game (26.2) and 31st in red-zone defense (67.4%). Denver must exploit these vulnerabilities by orchestrating long, sustained drives that culminate in touchdowns rather than field goals. Bo Nix and Sean Payton should emphasize quick passes and short-yardage gains to move the chains efficiently. This will keep Cincinnati’s explosive offense off the field and test the Bengals’ inability to make critical stops. In particular, Denver should target the Bengals’ linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field, where coverage lapses have been frequent.
Denver’s offense must also be opportunistic in the red zone, an area where they excel, converting touchdowns 61.2% of the time (7th). With the Bengals allowing touchdowns on over two-thirds of opponent red-zone trips, Nix should leverage his mobility and playmaking ability to find receivers like Jerry Jeudy. The Broncos’ rushing attack, while middling at 4.2 yards per carry, can also be effective against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed per game (128.3). Establishing even a modest running game will open up play-action opportunities for Nix to attack the Bengals’ secondary.
Win in the Trenches
Denver’s offensive line has been a key factor in protecting Bo Nix this season, allowing just 22 sacks (3rd fewest in the league). However, the Bengals’ Trey Hendrickson poses a significant threat as the NFL’s sack leader with 13.5. The Broncos’ offensive line must double-team Hendrickson where necessary and avoid penalties that could put them in long-yardage situations. If Denver’s line can hold firm, Nix will have the time he needs to operate efficiently, particularly when targeting quick, high-percentage throws to neutralize Cincinnati’s pass rush.
Defensively, Denver’s front seven must dominate to limit Joe Burrow’s effectiveness. The Broncos have excelled at pressuring quarterbacks, recording 51 sacks this season, and need to continue that trend against Burrow. Zach Allen’s ability to disrupt plays in the backfield, combined with Bonitto’s pass-rushing prowess, will be vital in keeping Burrow from finding his rhythm. Denver’s ability to stop the run—allowing just 3.9 yards per carry (3rd)—will also be critical in making Cincinnati’s offense one-dimensional. By controlling the line of scrimmage, Denver can dictate the game flow and put themselves in a position to win.
How the Bengals can win:
Exploit Denver’s Run Game
The Broncos’ rushing attack has been inconsistent this season, averaging 108.5 yards per game (18th) and 4.2 yards per carry (21st). Cincinnati’s defense, while ranked 21st against the run, has shown improvement in recent weeks and must focus on shutting down Denver’s ground game. By forcing Bo Nix into obvious passing situations, the Bengals can turn the game into a battle between their pass rush and Denver’s offensive line. This approach will also put pressure on Nix to perform in third-and-long situations, where rookie mistakes are more likely.
If the Bengals can limit Denver’s rushing yards early, it will allow their defensive front to focus on pass-rushing opportunities. Trey Hendrickson, who leads the NFL in pressures (72), will be critical in these scenarios. The Bengals’ linebackers, led by Logan Wilson, must also step up to stop short-yardage runs and clog passing lanes in the middle of the field. By making Denver one-dimensional, Cincinnati can gain a decisive edge defensively.
Leverage Offensive Firepower
Joe Burrow is having one of the best seasons of his career, leading the league in passing yards (4,229) and touchdowns (39). His connection with Ja’Marr Chase has been electric, and the duo’s ability to create explosive plays will be key against Denver’s defense. While Patrick Surtain II will likely limit Chase’s production to some extent, Burrow has other weapons to rely on, including Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas. Higgins, who is expected to play despite an ankle injury, has 727 yards and seven touchdowns in just 10 games, making him a reliable secondary option. Iosivas, a promising young wideout, has demonstrated big-play potential and will look to take advantage of matchups against Denver’s secondary.
Additionally, rookie running back Chase Brown can be a valuable asset, particularly as a receiver out of the backfield. Brown’s versatility allows the Bengals to create mismatches in the short passing game and exploit Denver’s linebackers in coverage. His ability to contribute on swing passes, screens, and check-downs can relieve pressure on Burrow, especially if Denver’s pass rush becomes a factor. Brown’s involvement will also help diversify Cincinnati’s offense and keep the Broncos guessing, enabling Burrow to spread the ball around and maintain a fast-paced attack.
By leveraging all their offensive weapons, including Chase Brown’s versatility and the deep receiving corps led by Chase and Higgins, the Bengals can maximize their top-ranked passing game (267.3 yards per game) and challenge Denver’s stout defense.
Protect Burrow
One of the biggest challenges for the Bengals will be keeping Joe Burrow upright against Denver’s ferocious pass rush. The Broncos have recorded 51 sacks this season, ranking second in the NFL, thanks to a relentless front led by Nik Bonitto (11.5 sacks) and interior disruptor Zach Allen. Denver’s defense is particularly adept at generating pressure in critical situations, often forcing quarterbacks into hurried decisions. The Bengals’ offensive line, ranked 16th in sack percentage allowed (6.23%), must step up to give Burrow the time he needs to execute Cincinnati’s high-powered offense.
To counter Denver’s pass rush, Cincinnati’s offensive game plan should emphasize quick-developing plays. Screens, slants, and swing passes can neutralize the impact of Denver’s edge rushers by forcing them to hesitate before pinning their ears back. Burrow’s ability to read defenses pre-snap will be vital in identifying blitzes and adjusting protections at the line. The offensive line must also communicate effectively to avoid breakdowns, particularly against Denver’s creative stunts and blitz packages. Right tackle and guard play will be especially crucial, as Denver often exploits gaps on the edges and in the A-gap with well-timed rushes.
Additionally, the Bengals can use misdirection and play-action to slow down Denver’s pass rush. Running back Chase Brown’s speed and versatility make him an excellent candidate for draw plays and screen passes, which can take advantage of overaggressive pass-rushers. Burrow’s mobility, though not his defining trait, can also play a role; designed rollouts and bootlegs could help him escape pressure while buying time for receivers to get open downfield.
Finally, Cincinnati must establish at least a semblance of a running game to keep Denver’s defense honest. Though the Bengals rank 30th in rushing yards per game (92.7), even moderate success on the ground can prevent Denver’s front from focusing exclusively on the pass. A balanced offensive attack will not only help Burrow stay upright but also create more opportunities for explosive plays through the air. If the Bengals can protect Burrow effectively, they will give themselves the best chance to exploit Denver’s secondary and maintain their offensive rhythm.
Algorithm’s Projection:
Cincinnati Bengals 26 Denver Broncos 23
Since the actual line is CIN -3 and O/U 50, our projected lines do not meet the 3.5-point differential requirement, therefore there is no play.
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