Chiefs vs. Steelers odds, analysis, prediction.
Chiefs @ Steeler Betting Odds
Kansas City Chiefs: -2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -142
Pittsburgh Steelers: +2.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +120
Over Under: 43 (-110)
Odds updated as of 12/23/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
The Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) face the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) in a pivotal Week 17 AFC showdown on Christmas Day. Both teams have much at stake: the Chiefs can secure the AFC's top seed with a win, while the Steelers need a victory to maintain control of the AFC North. Kansas City enters the game on a five-game winning streak, bolstered by a balanced attack and a top-tier defense ranked third in points allowed per game (18.5). Conversely, the Steelers, coming off a tough loss to the Ravens, lean on a defense that excels at creating turnovers (2.1 takeaways per game, #1) and limiting opponent third-down conversions to 35.36% (#5).
The Chiefs' offensive efficiency (50.95% third-down conversion rate, #1) will clash with the Steelers' stout defense, creating a high-stakes chess match. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s ground-heavy offensive scheme (50.42% rush play rate, #4) will challenge Kansas City’s elite run defense, which allows just 91.4 yards per game (#3). Both teams face injury concerns, with key players like Chris Jones and D.J. Humphries potentially unavailable for Kansas City. Expect a hard-fought, strategic battle between two teams vying for playoff momentum.
How the Steelers can win:
Control the Clock with the Run Game
The Steelers’ offense revolves around their rushing attack, which ranks second in rush attempts per game (31.9) and fourth in rush play percentage (50.42%). Despite averaging only 3.9 yards per carry (#31), Pittsburgh’s commitment to the run allows them to dominate the time of possession battle, where they rank seventh (52.24%). By keeping the ball out of Mahomes’ hands, the Steelers can limit Kansas City’s ability to capitalize on their explosive offensive capabilities.
Kansas City’s run defense is formidable, allowing just 91.4 yards per game (#3) and 4.0 yards per carry (#4). However, Pittsburgh’s volume-based approach can wear down defenses over time, especially if their offensive line can create even marginal gains. If Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren can sustain drives and move the chains, it opens up opportunities for Russell Wilson to utilize play-action and attack Kansas City’s secondary.
Controlling the clock also reduces the burden on Pittsburgh’s inconsistent passing attack, which ranks 25th in passing yards per game (198.9). By dictating the pace of the game, the Steelers can shorten the contest and force Kansas City into a slower, more methodical game plan that plays to Pittsburgh’s defensive strengths.
Win the Turnover Battle
The Steelers lead the NFL in takeaways per game with 2.1 (#1) and boast a +1.1 turnover margin (#2). This opportunistic defense thrives on forcing mistakes, particularly through interceptions, as they rank third in opponent interception percentage (3.21%). Against a Chiefs offense that occasionally takes risks, Pittsburgh’s ability to capitalize on turnovers will be critical.
Pressure from edge rushers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith could disrupt Mahomes, who has a tendency to extend plays, sometimes leading to risky decisions. If Pittsburgh’s defensive front can collapse the pocket and force hurried throws, they may generate critical turnovers. Short fields created by turnovers will be vital for a Steelers offense that struggles to consistently produce long scoring drives.
Moreover, Russell Wilson’s veteran experience complements Pittsburgh’s defense, as he has been effective at protecting the ball. The Steelers rank seventh in giveaways per game (0.9), and by avoiding their own mistakes while forcing Kansas City’s hand, they can shift the momentum in their favor.
Exploit Kansas City’s Red Zone Weakness
Kansas City’s red-zone offense ranks just 26th in touchdown conversion rate (51.67%), while Pittsburgh’s defense is stout in this area, allowing touchdowns on only 53.85% of opponent red-zone trips (#13). This discrepancy gives the Steelers an opportunity to hold the Chiefs to field goals instead of touchdowns, a critical factor in a close game.
Defensive standouts like Minkah Fitzpatrick will be key in disrupting Mahomes’ rhythm inside the 20-yard line. Kansas City often relies on Travis Kelce in these situations, but Pittsburgh’s secondary can use double coverage and exotic looks to force the Chiefs into less favorable matchups.
If the Steelers can force a few red-zone stops and turn those opportunities into field goals for Kansas City, it will increase the pressure on the Chiefs to execute on longer drives. This strategy will help Pittsburgh stay competitive even if their offense struggles to find the end zone consistently.
How the Chiefs can win:
Lean on Defensive Dominance
The Chiefs’ defense has been outstanding all season, ranking third in points allowed per game (18.5) and seventh in opponent yards per play (5.2). Their run defense, in particular, has been a strength, allowing only 91.4 rushing yards per game (#3) and 4.0 yards per carry (#4). Against a Steelers offense that struggles to generate explosive plays on the ground (3.9 yards per carry, #31), Kansas City can force Pittsburgh into unfavorable passing situations.
Shutting down the run early will force Pittsburgh to rely on Russell Wilson, who has been solid but inconsistent, to carry the offense. Kansas City’s defensive line, even without Chris Jones, has depth and talent to generate pressure, with players like George Karlaftis and Charles Omenihu capable of disrupting the pocket. Limiting Pittsburgh’s rushing attack will be key to controlling the flow of the game.
Additionally, Kansas City’s ability to create turnovers (1.2 takeaways per game, #14) can further stifle a Steelers offense that relies heavily on ball security. If the Chiefs’ defense plays up to its capabilities, they can dominate the field position battle and give Mahomes plenty of opportunities to capitalize.
Capitalize on Third-Down Efficiency
Kansas City leads the league in third-down conversion rate (50.95%), a key factor in sustaining drives and controlling the tempo of games. Against a Steelers defense that ranks fifth in opponent third-down conversion percentage (35.36%), this matchup will be critical. Mahomes’ ability to improvise under pressure and find receivers like Travis Kelce and Isiah Pacheco makes Kansas City incredibly difficult to stop in these situations.
Sustained drives also allow Kansas City to control the clock, where they rank second in time of possession (52.91%). This strategy not only keeps Pittsburgh’s defense on the field but also limits the Steelers’ offense from finding a rhythm. The Chiefs’ ability to extend drives will likely force the Steelers to abandon their preferred ground-heavy approach if they fall behind early.
Converting on third downs also plays into Kansas City’s efficiency in wearing down opponents. Long, methodical drives can frustrate a defense like Pittsburgh’s, potentially leading to breakdowns in coverage or missed tackles later in the game.
Exploit Pittsburgh’s Pass Protection Issues
The Steelers’ offensive line allows sacks on 8.49% of dropbacks (#24), making Russell Wilson vulnerable to pressure. Even without Chris Jones, the Chiefs’ defensive front can create problems for Pittsburgh’s offense. George Karlaftis, Charles Omenihu, and Mike Danna can generate pressure from various alignments, forcing Wilson into hurried decisions or mistakes.
Kansas City’s defense also ranks 16th in opponent interception percentage (2.39%), which could be a factor if the pass rush forces Wilson into ill-advised throws. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s lack of explosive plays in the passing game (7.5 yards per pass, #12) means the Chiefs can focus on pressuring the quarterback without worrying as much about deep threats.
By consistently winning at the line of scrimmage, Kansas City can disrupt Pittsburgh’s offensive rhythm and create opportunities for their offense to build a lead. If the Chiefs dominate in the trenches, they can dictate the game flow and force Pittsburgh into a one-dimensional attack.
Algorithm’s Projection:
Kansas City Chiefs 21 Pittsburgh Steelers 21
The algorithm projects a 21-21 tie based on a balance of strengths and weaknesses between the two teams, making this a highly competitive matchup. Kansas City's offensive efficiency on third downs (50.95%, #1) and Pittsburgh's ability to generate turnovers (2.1 per game, #1) create a clash that neutralizes scoring opportunities on both sides. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's commitment to the run game and Kansas City's elite run defense suggest a grind-it-out battle in time of possession. Both teams excel in limiting opponents in critical situations—Kansas City ranks third in points allowed per game (18.5), while Pittsburgh's defense excels in the red zone and at disrupting the pass. These dynamics point to a low-scoring, evenly matched contest, where key drives are traded, but neither team gains a decisive advantage, culminating in a projected stalemate at 21-21.
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