Divisional Round Preview
Betting Odds:
Saturday 1/18/25
4:30 pm Texans @ Chiefs Chiefs -8 (-110) ML -500 Texans +8 (-110) ML +360 O/U 41.5 (-110)
8:00 pm Commanders @ Lions Lions -9.5 (-110) ML -470 Commanders +9.5 (-110) ML+360 O/U 55.5 (-110)
Sunday 1/19/25
3:00 pm Rams @ Eagles Eagles -6 (-110) ML -278 Rams +6 (-110) ML +225 O/U 43.5 (-108)
6:30 pm Ravens @ Bills Ravens -1.5 (-102) ML -115 Bills +1.5 (-118) ML -105 O/U 51.5 (-105)
(4) Texans at (1) Chiefs
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+
The Kansas City Chiefs are set to open their playoff campaign as they chase an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title. After clinching the AFC’s top seed, Kansas City enjoyed a bye week to recover and recalibrate. Patrick Mahomes, the NFL’s premier quarterback, continues to power an offense that thrives on third-down efficiency and explosive plays. Defensively, the Chiefs have been formidable, led by Chris Jones in the interior and George Karlaftis off the edge. Karlaftis has emerged as a force in his sophomore season, registering 8.0 sacks and consistently pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
The Houston Texans, under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, have made remarkable strides. Quarterback C.J. Stroud, no longer a rookie, has solidified himself as one of the NFL’s brightest young stars. Stroud has developed excellent chemistry with wide receiver Nico Collins, who torched the Chiefs in their Week 16 meeting for over 100 yards. Houston’s ground game, led by Joe Mixon, has been vital to their success, although Mixon’s availability is in question due to an ankle injury. The Texans' defense, spearheaded by rookie standout Will Anderson Jr., must disrupt Mahomes to have a chance.
Key matchups will be pivotal. Karlaftis and Jones against Houston’s offensive line could dictate whether Stroud has time to find his weapons. On the other side, McDuffie versus Collins is another rematch to watch, with Collins getting the better of their last duel. The Chiefs’ high-powered offense and postseason experience make them eight-point favorites, but Houston’s knack for punching above their weight keeps this matchup intriguing. A fast start for the Texans could force Mahomes and the Chiefs into a tighter contest than they’d prefer.
(6) Commanders at (1) Lions
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET | Fox
The Detroit Lions’ redemption arc continues as they enter the Divisional Round as the NFC’s top seed. After a 13-4 season capped by a dominant Week 18 performance, the Lions look poised for their first Super Bowl berth in franchise history. Jared Goff has been a steady presence under center, and the backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has given Detroit an elite one-two punch in the run game. Gibbs, in particular, adds explosive receiving ability, while Montgomery excels in grinding out tough yards. On defense, Kerby Joseph anchors a secondary that excels in creating turnovers, with Jameson Williams providing deep-threat explosiveness for their offense.
The Washington Commanders, led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, have been one of the league’s surprise teams. Daniels’ dual-threat ability has elevated Washington’s offense, particularly in critical situations where he leads the NFL in third- and fourth-down QBR. His connection with star wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been a focal point of the offense, with McLaurin coming off a season-best performance in the Wild Card round. Defensively, Washington specializes in limiting explosive plays, a critical skill set against Detroit’s yards-after-catch-heavy (YAC) offense.
Detroit’s success hinges on controlling the tempo with their run game and exploiting mismatches in the passing game. Williams, a key to Detroit’s vertical attack, will test Washington’s secondary. On the other side, Daniels’ ability to navigate Detroit’s blitz-heavy approach will determine the Commanders’ chances. Although the Lions are favored by 9.5 points, the Commanders’ momentum and Daniels’ playmaking ability give them the potential to keep this game competitive. If Detroit can capitalize on their home-field advantage and force Daniels into mistakes, they should move one step closer to their Super Bowl dream.
(4) Rams at (2) Eagles
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock
The Los Angeles Rams head to Philadelphia in what is expected to be a frigid and physical clash. The Rams, under head coach Sean McVay, have leaned heavily on their passing game, with Matthew Stafford leading the charge. Stafford’s top targets, Cooper Kupp and breakout star Puka Nacua, have been integral to the team’s success. The Rams’ defense has struggled to contain strong rushing teams this season, a weakness that the Eagles exploited in their Week 12 meeting, when Saquon Barkley ran for 255 of Philadelphia’s 314 rushing yards.
The Eagles, led by Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, are built for playoff football. Barkley has been the driving force behind Philadelphia’s offense, leading the NFL in rushing yards and adding explosive plays in the passing game. Jalen Hurts, while effective as a passer, thrives in RPOs and designed runs that take advantage of Philadelphia’s dominant offensive line. The Eagles’ passing game, featuring A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, is efficient, though weather conditions may push the offense toward a run-heavy approach.
For the Rams to pull off the upset, they must limit Barkley’s impact and force Hurts into obvious passing downs. Stafford will need to protect the ball and find ways to exploit mismatches in the Eagles’ secondary. On the other hand, Philadelphia will look to wear down the Rams’ defense with their physicality and control the clock. With snowy conditions expected and home-field advantage on their side, the Eagles are six-point favorites, but Stafford’s playoff experience and McVay’s adaptability make the Rams a dangerous underdog.
(3) Ravens at (2) Bills
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET | CBS/Paramount+
The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills meet in a highly anticipated showdown in snowy Orchard Park. Lamar Jackson, a perennial MVP candidate, leads a Ravens offense bolstered by the acquisition of Derrick Henry. Henry, who rushed for 186 yards in the Wild Card round, has been a game-changer for Baltimore, providing the power to complement Jackson’s dynamic playmaking. On defense, the Ravens are led by safety Kyle Hamilton, who excels at limiting explosive plays and will be tasked with containing Buffalo’s versatile offense.
The Bills, led by Josh Allen, are no strangers to postseason success, though their path to the Divisional Round has been anything but smooth. Allen remains the focal point of Buffalo’s offense, with his ability to make plays both through the air and on the ground. Tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid provide reliable targets, while the Bills’ rushing attack has shown improvement, particularly in snowy conditions. Defensively, Buffalo’s front seven, anchored by Matt Milano, must focus on slowing down Henry and containing Jackson’s scrambling ability.
This game will be won in the trenches. Baltimore’s offensive line, one of the league’s best, must create opportunities for Henry while protecting Jackson from Buffalo’s pass rush. Meanwhile, the Bills need to capitalize on turnovers and limit Baltimore’s time of possession. With snowy conditions and a raucous home crowd, Buffalo’s defense will need to rise to the occasion. Baltimore enters as slight favorites, but Allen’s big-game experience and Buffalo’s ability to thrive in harsh weather make this an even contest.
