Road To Super Bowl 59 NFL Playoff Preview
Super Bowl 59 Odds:
Detroit Lions (+275)
Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
Baltimore Ravens (+600)
Buffalo Bills (+600)
Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
Minnesota Vikings (+1600)
Green Bay Packers (+1800)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)
Los Angeles Chargers (+3500)
Los Angeles Rams (+3500)
Washington Commanders (+3500)
Denver Broncos (+8000)
Houston Texans (+10000)
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10000)
Odds updated as of 1/9/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
The 2025 NFL Playoffs promise to be one of the most competitive and exciting postseason slates in recent memory. With 14 teams battling for the ultimate prize, each brings a unique blend of strengths, weaknesses, and storylines that could define their path to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. The Kansas City Chiefs, chasing an unprecedented three-peat, enter as the AFC's top seed, while the Detroit Lions, fresh off their first-ever 15-win season, lead the NFC. Both teams have earned first-round byes, but the field is stacked with challengers, including the surging Buffalo Bills and the balanced Baltimore Ravens in the AFC, as well as the explosive Philadelphia Eagles and resilient Minnesota Vikings in the NFC.
This year’s playoffs feature a fascinating mix of playoff veterans and underdogs on the rise. Teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles bring extensive postseason experience, while squads like the Lions, Commanders, and Texans represent fresh faces eager to prove themselves on the grand stage. Storylines abound, from rookie quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels making their playoff debuts to seasoned leaders like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson chasing legacy-defining championships. With the league's most explosive offenses, stingiest defenses, and brightest coaching minds all colliding, the stage is set for an unforgettable road to the Lombardi Trophy.
Rankings:
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (+10000)
The Steelers come into the playoffs as the least inspiring team in the field, with major struggles on offense. Ranking just 15th in Points/Game (22.6) and 17th in Points/Play (0.353), their inability to consistently generate points makes them a clear underdog. Even with midseason adjustments like inserting Russell Wilson at quarterback and the return of wide receiver George Pickens, the offense has remained stagnant. In their last four games, the Steelers scored a combined 57 points, an average of just over 14 per game—a dismal output heading into the postseason.
Where the Steelers shine is on defense, which ranks 4th in Points Allowed/Game (19.2) and 5th in Opponent Points/Play (0.318). Players like T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward anchor a unit that can stifle opponents, particularly in the red zone. However, their defensive success is offset by their inability to sustain drives offensively, as seen in their 26th-place rank in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate (43.26%). While Mike Tomlin deserves credit for squeezing a 10-7 record out of this group, the Steelers appear ill-equipped to compete with the AFC’s elite.
13. Houston Texans (+10000)
The Texans barely scraped into the playoffs, and their performance this season reflects a team struggling to meet heightened expectations. The offense, led by second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, never regained its explosive 2023 form. Injuries to key playmakers like Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell hurt their passing attack, leaving Stroud to face immense pressure behind a porous offensive line that ranks last in blown block rate (28.5%). This lack of protection has contributed to their middling ranking in Points/Game (19.0) and one of the lowest success rates on passing plays in the league.
Defensively, the Texans have shown flashes of promise, ranking 13th in Opponent 4th Down Conversion Rate (53.13%) and 16th in Opponent Red Zone Scoring (57.38%). However, their struggles to stop high-powered offenses, combined with an offense that ranks outside the top 15 in most categories, leaves them vulnerable. Despite their defensive potential and a late-season win against the Titans, the Texans face an uphill battle to make a meaningful postseason run.
12. Denver Broncos (+8000)
The Broncos’ defense is their ticket to playoff relevance. Ranking 1st in Defensive EPA, Opponent Success Rate, and Sack Rate, Denver’s defense is a smothering force. Led by Patrick Surtain II and Nik Bonitto, this unit is the best in the league at limiting scoring opportunities, allowing just 19.2 Points/Game (4th). Their dominance extends to stopping the run and pressuring quarterbacks, making them capable of frustrating even elite offenses.
However, Denver’s offense is a different story. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown flashes of promise but ranks 21st in EPA per dropback and 27th in Dropback Success Rate. While Sean Payton has tailored the offense to limit mistakes, the Broncos rank only 16th in Yards/Game (327.6) and 17th in Points/Play (0.353). This lack of offensive firepower, combined with Nix’s inexperience, makes it difficult to envision Denver keeping pace with teams like Buffalo or Kansas City.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (+3500)
Jim Harbaugh’s first season with the Chargers has been a success, guiding them to an 11-6 record with a disciplined and methodical approach. The Chargers rank 5th in Defensive Expected Points Added and have built an identity around controlling the clock and limiting mistakes. Quarterback Justin Herbert had an efficient year, supported by running back J.K. Dobbins and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey, who has emerged as a playmaker in recent weeks.
Despite their improvements, the Chargers have struggled against playoff-caliber teams, going 2-5 against opponents in the postseason field. While Herbert has the ability to elevate his game, their offense lacks explosiveness, ranking outside the top 10 in Points/Game and Yards/Play. The Chargers may have the discipline to win a game or two, but they don’t yet appear ready to challenge the AFC’s elite.
10. Washington Commanders (+3500)
The Commanders are one of the biggest surprises in the playoffs, with head coach Dan Quinn leading a remarkable turnaround fueled by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Daniels has consistently found ways to win, even when facing adversity, making clutch plays both through the air and on the ground. While the Commanders have struggled against teams with strong run defenses, Daniels’ dynamic playstyle has kept them competitive. Their ground game has been a key strength, averaging over 183 rushing yards in crucial late-season victories, and their defensive line has proven effective at controlling the trenches.
While Daniels’ inexperience may limit Washington’s ability to make a deep postseason run—making a Super Bowl win unlikely—the future is undeniably bright for this team. With a promising young quarterback, a coach who has instilled discipline and confidence, and a roster that has exceeded expectations, the Commanders are building a foundation for long-term success in the NFC. This playoff appearance is just the beginning of what could be an exciting new era for the franchise.
9. Los Angeles Rams (+3500)
The Rams’ late-season surge, fueled by Sean McVay’s coaching brilliance, has them peaking at the right time. Matthew Stafford’s connection with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua has revitalized the offense, which ranks 6th in Yards/Play (6.0). Their rushing attack, led by Kyren Williams, has also been a reliable weapon, as they averaged over 33 carries per game during their four-game winning streak late in the year.
Defensively, the Rams have shown they can make timely plays, but injuries to key players have limited their consistency. They’ve struggled to contain explosive offenses, which could be a problem against teams like the Eagles or Lions. While their experience and coaching give them a fighting chance, the Rams will need to bring their A-game to survive the NFC gauntlet.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3000)
The Buccaneers enter the playoffs as one of the league’s most unpredictable teams. Baker Mayfield’s career resurgence has been the story of the season, with the quarterback leading an offense that ranks 5th in Points/Game (30.9) and 2nd in Red Zone Scoring (71.64%). Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has done a masterful job designing plays that maximize Mayfield’s strengths, and their balanced attack makes them a tough out.
Defensively, the Buccaneers are solid but unspectacular, ranking 17th in Points Allowed/Game (21.6) and 21st in Yards Allowed/Play (5.5). Their inconsistency, particularly in close games, has been a concern all season. While their offensive firepower gives them a puncher’s chance, their defensive limitations could prove costly against higher-seeded opponents.
7. Minnesota Vikings (+1600)
The Vikings boast a 14-3 record and one of the league’s most disruptive defenses under coordinator Brian Flores. Edge rushers Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel lead a unit that excels at pressuring quarterbacks and forcing turnovers, helping Minnesota rank as one of the most opportunistic defenses in the league. Offensively, Sam Darnold has been a steady presence, supported by a deep receiving corps led by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Together, they form a balanced and competitive team capable of contending with any opponent.
However, the Week 18 loss to the Lions may have exposed vulnerabilities that other playoff teams could exploit. Detroit’s ability to pressure Darnold and disrupt Minnesota’s rhythm highlighted the Vikings' struggles against teams that can win in the trenches. Additionally, their offensive consistency remains a concern, as Darnold has had difficulty elevating his play in high-pressure situations. While their defense gives them a chance in every game, they’ll need to make adjustments quickly to avoid a similar fate in the postseason.
6. Green Bay Packers (+1800)
The Packers are a dangerous wild-card team, bolstered by a late-season resurgence led by quarterback Jordan Love. After a rocky start, Love has settled into a groove, finishing the season with seven consecutive games without an interception. The offense, anchored by running back Josh Jacobs, ranks 4th in 4th Down Conversion Rate (70.59%) and has been efficient in critical moments. Their balanced attack allows them to adapt to different game scripts, making them a tough matchup.
Defensively, the Packers are one of the league’s best units, ranking 4th in Defensive Efficiency and 9th in Opponent Points/Game (21.2). They’ve been particularly strong in the red zone, limiting opponents to a 51.85% touchdown rate (8th). However, injuries to key players like cornerback Jaire Alexander could hinder their ability to contain explosive offenses like those of the Eagles or Lions. Green Bay’s combination of balance, playoff experience, and recent momentum makes them a legitimate threat to upset higher-seeded teams.
5. Philadelphia Eagles (+700)
With arguably the best roster in the league, the Eagles are poised for another deep playoff run. Their offense, led by quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Saquon Barkley, ranks 2nd in Points/Game (30.9) and 2nd in Red Zone Scoring (71.64%). Barkley’s 2,005 rushing yards behind a dominant offensive line provide the foundation for an attack that can wear down defenses over four quarters. The receiving trio of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert adds a lethal aerial component.
Defensively, the Eagles have excelled under first-year coordinator Vic Fangio. With playmakers at every level, including Jalen Carter and rookie cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Philadelphia ranks 6th in Opponent Yards/Play (5.2). The only concern is their recent injuries to Hurts and key defensive backs, which could limit their effectiveness. If healthy, the Eagles are as dangerous as any team in the postseason.
4. Detroit Lions (+275) *Favorite
The Lions boast the most prolific offense in the NFL, leading the league in Points/Game (33.2), Yards/Game (409.5), and Touchdowns/Game (4.1). Jared Goff has thrived under the guidance of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, distributing the ball to a loaded skill-position group led by Amon-Ra St. Brown. Detroit’s offensive efficiency is further highlighted by their 69.44% Red Zone Touchdown Rate (3rd) and 4th-ranked 3rd Down Conversion Rate (47.57%).
Defensively, the Lions are a mixed bag. While they rank 20th in Yards Allowed/Game (342.4) and 27th in Opponent Yards/Play (5.7), they excel in critical moments, leading the league in Opponent 3rd Down Conversion Rate (32.43%). Their bend-but-don’t-break philosophy has kept them in games despite a rash of injuries. With their offensive firepower and gritty defense, Detroit is the current Super Bowl Favorite and one of the most dangerous teams in the playoffs.
3. Baltimore Ravens (+600)
The Baltimore Ravens enter the playoffs as one of the most balanced and dangerous teams in the league. Their offense is powered by Lamar Jackson, who has had an MVP-caliber season, and Derrick Henry, whose bruising running style adds a new dimension to their attack. The Ravens lead the league in Yards/Play (6.8) and rank 3rd in both Points/Game (30.5) and Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (74.24%). This combination of efficiency and explosiveness makes them a nightmare for opposing defenses, especially in high-pressure moments. Jackson’s evolution as a passer has been pivotal, as he has shown greater poise in the pocket and an ability to dissect defenses with precision.
Defensively, the Ravens have undergone a remarkable transformation under first-year coordinator Zach Orr. After early-season struggles, the unit has hit its stride, allowing just 43 points over their last four games. They rank 6th in Opponent Yards/Play (5.2) and 9th in Opponent Points/Game (21.2). The secondary, led by the versatile Kyle Hamilton, has been instrumental in shutting down opposing passing attacks, while the front seven, featuring Roquan Smith, has excelled at controlling the run game. This defense complements their high-powered offense, making them a well-rounded contender.
Despite their strengths, the Ravens face questions about their postseason consistency. Lamar Jackson, for all his regular-season accolades, has struggled in the playoffs, with a significant drop in his touchdown rate and an uptick in turnovers. Last year’s AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs was a heartbreaker, and this year’s path likely runs through both Buffalo and Kansas City again. If Jackson can elevate his play and overcome those past struggles, the Ravens have the talent and momentum to make a deep run and potentially win their first Super Bowl since 2012.
2. Buffalo Bills (+600)
The Buffalo Bills enter the playoffs as one of the league’s most complete teams, powered by MVP frontrunner Josh Allen. Their offense is a juggernaut, ranking 1st in Points/Play (0.512) and 2nd in Points/Game (30.9) and Red Zone Touchdown Percentage (71.64%). Allen’s dual-threat ability, supported by a dominant offensive line that allowed just 14 sacks all season, has made the Bills nearly impossible to defend. The addition of Amari Cooper midseason added a reliable target for Allen, while James Cook’s breakout season, featuring a league-leading 16 rushing touchdowns, brought balance to their attack. The Bills made history as the first team with 30 passing and 30 rushing touchdowns in a season, showcasing their versatility.
Buffalo has also shown they can compete with the best, handing Kansas City and Detroit rare losses this season. This ability to win high-stakes games gives them a significant psychological edge heading into the playoffs. Their offense can score quickly and efficiently, whether through explosive plays or methodical drives. The offensive depth, including a reliable receiving corps and a steady run game, makes them a nightmare matchup for any team in the postseason.
Defensively, the Bills have been inconsistent, ranking 11th in Points Allowed/Game (21.6) and 17th in Yards Allowed/Game (341.5). While they’ve struggled at times with giving up big plays and maintaining pressure, they’ve also shown an ability to generate turnovers in key moments. If their defense can tighten up and complement their potent offense, Buffalo has the tools to end their Super Bowl drought and bring a championship to their loyal fanbase.
1. Kansas Chiefs (+350)
The Kansas City Chiefs enter the playoffs as the defending back-to-back Super Bowl champions, aiming for a historic three-peat. Despite a quieter year statistically for their offense, they remain one of the league's most dangerous teams thanks to their playoff experience and Patrick Mahomes’ brilliance. While they rank 15th in Points/Game (22.6) and 23rd in Yards/Play (5.1), their situational efficiency keeps them dangerous. The Chiefs rank 2nd in 3rd Down Conversion Rate (48.47%) and 3rd in 4th Down Conversion Rate (70.59%), excelling in high-pressure moments. Mahomes has adapted to a season riddled with injuries and inconsistency on offense, but with the recent return of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and improved protection, Kansas City’s offense appears to be peaking at the right time.
Defensively, the Chiefs are among the league’s elite, ranking 4th in Points Allowed/Game (19.2) and 5th in Opponent Points/Play (0.318). Steve Spagnuolo’s unit has leaned on a young secondary, led by Trent McDuffie, and veterans like Chris Jones and Nick Bolton to stymie opponents. Kansas City’s defense has held more than half its opponents under 20 points this season, allowing Mahomes and the offense to play within their comfort zone. This defensive improvement is a key difference from previous seasons and gives the Chiefs a balanced approach heading into the playoffs.
Home-field advantage and a first-round bye further strengthen Kansas City’s position as the team to beat. The extra rest will allow key veterans like Travis Kelce, Joe Thuney, and Chris Jones to recover and prepare for the grueling postseason. With Andy Reid at the helm and Mahomes under center, the Chiefs have proven time and again that they can rise to the occasion in the playoffs. Despite their offensive challenges this season, their championship pedigree, defensive strength, and situational excellence make them the favorites to claim their third straight Lombardi Trophy.
Regular Season Record: 50-24
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