Week 17 Recap (2-1) NFL Model 47-24 (66%)
Our Bets: (2-1)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 42.5 (1.35 units) $$$
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 39.5 (1.45 units) $$$
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Carolina +10 (1.25 units) XXX
*There must be at least a 3.5-point differential between our projected line and the actual line for there to be a bet
*The bigger the differential, the higher the unit size (based on Kelly Criterion)
Game Recaps:
Chiefs 29 Steelers 10
On Wednesday, the Kansas City Chiefs gave their fans an early Christmas gift — and bettors who followed our algorithm a huge win — with a 29-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. The game totaled just 39 points, comfortably cashing the Under 46.5 bet. Our algorithm, which had projected the total at 42.5 points, nailed its read on this matchup.
The Chiefs’ defense set the tone early, forcing a three-and-out on the Steelers’ opening drive. Nikko Remigio’s 25-yard punt return helped Kansas City start strong, but an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after Xavier Worthy’s 7-yard touchdown kept the score manageable. A missed extra point from Harrison Butker further supported the under trend.
Kansas City’s defense continued to shine, with a George Karlaftis sack stalling another Steelers drive. The Chiefs’ offense capitalized, as Patrick Mahomes connected with Justin Watson for an 11-yard touchdown to make it 13-0. Pittsburgh showed some life, but a holding penalty wiped out Jaylen Warren’s touchdown run, and Justin Reid’s end-zone interception denied the Steelers any points on that drive.
Both teams struggled to sustain offense in the second quarter, with Kansas City’s Jawaan Taylor drawing a critical holding penalty that forced a punt. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s drives were stymied by the Chiefs’ defense, and the first half ended with Kansas City up 13-7 — far below the pace for an over.
The third quarter saw both teams exchanging field goals. Kansas City’s Harrison Butker made a 32-yarder to extend the lead to 16-7, but Pittsburgh’s Chris Boswell narrowed it to 16-10 on a second-chance attempt after a Kansas City penalty. Again, scoring opportunities were limited, playing into our algorithm’s projection of a lower total.
In the fourth quarter, Kareem Hunt’s 2-yard touchdown run and Travis Kelce’s record-breaking 77th career touchdown extended Kansas City’s lead, but the Steelers couldn’t keep pace. Pittsburgh’s final drive fizzled out as time expired, sealing the Chiefs’ 29-10 victory and ensuring the total stayed well under 46.5.
Our algorithm’s projection of 42.5 points was spot on, recognizing the defensive strengths of both teams and Kansas City’s ability to control the tempo. Bettors who trusted the numbers were rewarded in a game that never truly threatened to go over.
Jaguars 20 Titans 13
The Titans’ struggles continued on Sunday with a 20-13 loss to the Jaguars at EverBank Stadium, extending their losing streak to five games. But for those who followed our algorithm, it was another win. The game’s 33-point total stayed comfortably under the 39.5 line, just as our algorithm projected with a predicted total of 35.5.
Sloppy play and tough conditions set the tone early. The Jaguars built a 13-0 first-half lead, with a Mac Jones touchdown pass and a Titans turnover contributing to the deficit. The Titans managed to close the half with a field goal, making it 13-3 at the break, well on pace for the under.
In the second half, the Titans showed some fight with an 85-yard drive capped by Mason Rudolph’s touchdown pass to Nick Vannett, cutting the lead to 13-10. But the Jaguars responded in the fourth quarter with another touchdown to make it 20-10, effectively sealing the game.
The Titans added a late field goal and mounted a final drive, but a Rudolph pass was broken up at the goal line as time expired, securing the Jaguars' 20-13 win — and a winning ticket for Under bettors.
Our algorithm recognized the game’s low-scoring potential, factoring in the Titans’ offensive struggles and tough weather conditions. Once again, those trusting the numbers came out on top.
Buccaneers 48 Panthers 14
Sunday’s matchup between the Buccaneers and Panthers at Raymond James Stadium showcased the unpredictability of sports betting. Our algorithm projected the Buccaneers as 6-point favorites, leading to a bet on the Panthers at +10. However, Tampa Bay’s dominant performance resulted in a decisive 48-14 victory, as the Panthers were simply overmatched from the start.
Baker Mayfield delivered a standout performance, throwing for 359 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions. The Buccaneers’ offense was nearly unstoppable, scoring on seven of their first eight possessions and amassing 551 total yards. Rookie Bucky Irving added 190 yards from scrimmage, including 113 rushing yards, in a game where the Bucs controlled every aspect.
Carolina had moments of hope, with Bryce Young connecting with Adam Thielen for two touchdowns and keeping the game close at 27-14 heading into halftime. However, the second half belonged entirely to Tampa Bay. The Bucs’ defense shut out the Panthers after the break, added five sacks, and even scored on a blocked punt return. Carolina managed just 204 yards of total offense, including 39 rushing yards, as Tampa Bay's defensive front dominated.
Losses are part of sports betting, and this game highlighted the importance of trusting the long-term process. While the Panthers fell far short, the model’s projections continue to deliver consistent value over time, even as the occasional game goes against expectations.
We move forward with confidence, knowing that the process will yield more wins than losses in the long run.
To ensure the highest level of accuracy, we run our algorithm as close to game time as possible, factoring in real-time variables like weather conditions and last-minute injury updates.
Projections are posted on our Instagram and are sent directly to our telegram group ahead of game time.
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