#6 Penn State vs. #3 Boise State Odds, Analysis, Prediction.
Penn State @ Boise State Betting Odds
Penn State: -11.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -450
Boise State: +11.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +340
Over Under: 53.5 (-110)
Odds updated as of 12/31/24 courtesy of FanDuel
Overview:
The College Football Playoff quarterfinal presents a fascinating matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Boise State, two teams with contrasting paths to this stage. Penn State, fresh off a dominant 38-10 win over SMU, showcased its elite defense and efficient offense in the first round. However, that victory came against an SMU defense that ranks outside the nation’s top tiers, raising questions about how well the Nittany Lions’ offense will fare against tougher competition. On the other side, Boise State rides into the Fiesta Bowl as the first Group of Five program to reach the CFP, propelled by a historic season from Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and a high-powered rushing attack.
The stark contrast in strength of schedule is one of the defining narratives of this matchup. Penn State faced the 12th-toughest schedule in the country, earning a 10.6 SOS rating with battles against Big Ten heavyweights like Michigan and Ohio State. Boise State’s path, by comparison, ranked 71st with a negative 1.2 SOS rating and only one Power Four opponent. This disparity raises the critical question of whether Boise State’s impressive season can hold up against a Penn State team hardened by elite competition.
How Penn State can win:
Battle-Tested Against Tough Competition
Penn State’s strength of schedule (SOS) ranks 12th nationally, a testament to the level of competition they’ve faced throughout the season. This includes matchups against powerhouse programs like Michigan and Ohio State, two of the nation’s top teams. While they fell short in these high-profile games, Penn State has demonstrated resilience and growth, particularly in handling adversity. Their ability to dominate a solid SMU team in the first round of the CFP reflects their preparedness for elite postseason competition. In contrast, Boise State’s SOS ranks just 71st, with their only Power Four opponent, Oregon, narrowly defeating them in a 37-34 shootout. The gap in quality of opponents cannot be understated, as Penn State has consistently faced rosters brimming with NFL-level talent, sharpening their play for moments like these.
The level of competition Penn State has encountered is especially significant in a playoff setting, where adjustments and execution under pressure often decide outcomes. The Nittany Lions have already navigated challenging environments and schemes this season, preparing them for whatever Boise State may throw at them. In contrast, Boise State, while dominant in its league, has faced few opponents with the talent and depth comparable to Penn State’s roster. This difference could manifest in critical moments, particularly in the second half, when physicality and game experience often take over.
Elite Defense, Especially Against the Run
Penn State’s defense has been the backbone of their success this season, ranking among the best in the nation across multiple metrics. Their rush defense is particularly impressive, allowing only 100.5 yards per game (6th) and 3.1 yards per carry (9th). This front seven, led by stars like Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, is built to neutralize even the most explosive rushing attacks. Against Boise State, whose offense relies heavily on Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, this unit will play a pivotal role. Jeanty leads the nation in rushing yards (2,497) and touchdowns (29), but Penn State has consistently limited elite backs, forcing opponents to become one-dimensional.
Beyond raw statistics, Penn State’s defensive discipline and physicality in the trenches make them uniquely suited to stop Boise State’s high-powered ground game. Jeanty has thrived by creating explosive plays and wearing down defenses, but Penn State’s rotation of linemen and linebackers ensures that they stay fresh and aggressive for four quarters. Additionally, their ability to generate pressure up front and disrupt blocking schemes could force Boise State into unfavorable down-and-distance situations, limiting their ability to establish rhythm.
Balanced, Efficient Offense
Penn State’s offense complements their defense with balance and efficiency, ranking 18th in total yards per game (439.8) and 8th in yards per play (6.6). This unit thrives on versatility, with a strong running game led by Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 160 rushing yards and three touchdowns against SMU. Quarterback Drew Allar adds another dimension, with his ability to stretch the field and make "big-boy throws" when needed. Against Boise State, whose defense ranks 59th in yards allowed per game (369.1), this balanced attack presents a significant challenge.
While Boise State’s defensive line has been solid, their secondary has shown vulnerability, ranking 113th in passing yards allowed per game (256.6). This opens the door for Allar and his receiving corps to exploit mismatches downfield, creating opportunities for big plays. Moreover, Penn State’s offensive line, which ranks 20th in QB sack percentage (3.71%), has consistently protected Allar, allowing the offense to operate efficiently. This combination of protection, balance, and firepower positions Penn State to control the game’s tempo and capitalize on Boise State’s defensive gaps.
How Boise State could possibly win:
Explosive Rushing Attack
Boise State’s offense revolves around Ashton Jeanty, who has been nothing short of historic this season. Jeanty’s 2,497 rushing yards and 29 touchdowns lead the nation, and he averages a staggering 7.3 yards per carry. The Broncos’ rushing offense ranks 6th in the nation with 242.9 yards per game and 3rd in yards per attempt (6.1). Jeanty’s blend of power, vision, and speed makes him a threat to score from anywhere on the field, and his ability to sustain drives puts significant pressure on opposing defenses. Even against Penn State’s elite run defense, Jeanty’s explosiveness could break the game open with a few key plays.
Boise State’s offensive line deserves credit for Jeanty’s success, consistently winning battles in the trenches and opening lanes for their star back. While Penn State boasts a formidable front seven, Jeanty has proven he can produce against stout defenses, as evidenced by his performances in high-pressure games throughout the season. If Boise State can establish the run early, they’ll not only keep Penn State’s offense off the field but also wear down their defensive front, creating opportunities for Jeanty to take over late.
Turnover Discipline
One of Boise State’s greatest strengths is their ability to protect the football. The Broncos lead the nation in giveaways per game (0.6) and rank second in interception rate (1.14%). This discipline minimizes opportunities for opponents to capitalize on mistakes, a critical factor in high-stakes games. In contrast, Penn State’s defense thrives on turnovers, averaging 1.4 takeaways per game. If Boise State can maintain their usual ball security, they could neutralize one of Penn State’s key defensive strengths.
Boise State’s turnover efficiency also allows them to sustain drives and control field position, forcing opponents to play mistake-free football to keep up. Against a team like Penn State, which excels at capitalizing on opponents’ errors, this discipline could level the playing field and keep the Broncos competitive into the late stages of the game.
Red Zone and Offensive Efficiency
Boise State’s offense ranks among the most efficient in the nation, averaging 6.6 yards per play (10th) and 0.538 points per play (6th). Their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities is further underscored by their red-zone efficiency (89.36%, 30th). In a game where every possession matters, Boise State’s knack for turning drives into points could keep them within striking distance, even if Penn State’s defense dominates between the 20s.
This efficiency also reflects Boise State’s adaptability and creativity on offense. Head coach Spencer Danielson and his staff have consistently found ways to exploit defensive weaknesses, using a combination of Jeanty’s rushing prowess and timely passing to keep opponents off balance. If Boise State can sustain drives and finish in the red zone, they’ll have a chance to pull off the upset, particularly if Penn State struggles to match their scoring efficiency.
Prediction…
CFB Playoff Pass - $19.99
The College Football Playoff is finally here, and the excitement is unmatched! With our exclusive College Football Playoff Pass, you’ll get our algorithm’s expert projections sent directly to you for the entire playoff run. Stay ahead with detailed predictions powered by advanced analytics. Visit our store today to purchase your pass! If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to us on Instagram, Telegram, or in the “Contact Us” section of our website.
Projections are always posted on our Instagram, emailed, and sent directly to our telegram group ahead of game time.
Follow us on Instagram @CodeTheOdds
Join our community on Telegram!
links below