Week 18 Recap (3-0) NFL Model 50-24 (68%)

Our Bets: (3-0)

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 37.5 (1.25 units) $$$

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots. New England +3.5 (1.45 units) $$$

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets. Jets -1 (1.45 units) $$$

*There must be at least a 3.5-point differential between our projected line and the actual line for there to be a bet

*The bigger the differential, the higher the unit size (based on Kelly Criterion)

Game Recaps:

Eagles 20 Giants 13

Heading into this Week 18 matchup, our algorithm projected the total at 33.5 points— 4 points below the actual line of 37.5. This gave us a strong edge, identifying the under as the optimal bet. Despite the Giants starting their regulars against an Eagles lineup mostly featuring backups, the game played out as a defensive grind, perfectly aligning with our model’s prediction. The Eagles secured a 20-13 victory at Lincoln Financial Field, with the total landing at 33 points—right on our algorithm’s projection and well under the posted line.

The defensive tone of the game was evident from the start. Both teams struggled to sustain offensive drives, and the Eagles’ defense stepped up with key stops. A crucial moment came in the first half when the Eagles halted a Giants drive on fourth down, keeping points off the board. These stops highlighted the accuracy of the algorithm’s low-scoring projection and set the tone for the game.

In the second half, the Eagles’ defense continued to shine. Sydney Brown was a standout, making multiple key plays, including a game-sealing interception in the final minute as the Giants attempted a comeback. His turnover ensured the game stayed under and preserved the Eagles’ seven-point lead. Jake Elliott’s late 32-yard field goal extended the lead to 20-13, forcing the Giants to push for a touchdown that never came. Special teams also played a pivotal role, with Kelee Ringo delivering an impactful punt coverage tackle to cap off a strong defensive performance.

Tanner McKee managed the game well, throwing for 269 yards and two touchdowns while avoiding costly turnovers that could have driven the score higher. On the Giants’ side, missed opportunities, including a failed fourth-down conversion, a missed field goal, and a roughing-the-passer penalty, stifled their offensive efforts. Even Drew Lock’s 45-yard touchdown pass to Nabers wasn’t enough to disrupt the defensive nature of the contest.

Ultimately, the game unfolded exactly as our algorithm predicted. The projected line of 33.5 points was almost spot on, showcasing the model’s precision and its ability to find value in the betting markets. For those trusting our analytics, this result was a perfect example of how the algorithm can deliver profitable insights, closing out the regular season with a decisive win.

Patriots 23 Bills 16

Our algorithm projected New England as a slight favorite at -1, so when the betting line had the Patriots as +3.5 underdogs, the value was clear. Despite using a roster filled with younger players and backups, New England came through with a 23-16 victory over Buffalo in their season finale, comfortably covering the spread and validating the model’s projection.

The game began with promise as Joe Milton, making his NFL debut, showed why he has been quietly developing behind the scenes. After Drake Maye played one series, Milton took over and immediately made an impact. He completed his first six passes, leading a smooth opening touchdown drive capped by a one-yard read-option run. His athleticism and confidence were on full display as he celebrated with a signature backflip, energizing the team and crowd.

Milton’s second-quarter performance further reinforced the algorithm’s edge. He extended New England’s lead with a highlight-reel 48-yard touchdown pass to Kayshon Boutte, hitting the wide receiver on a scramble drill to finish a quick five-play drive. By halftime, Milton had gone 9-for-9 for 122 yards with both a passing and rushing touchdown, leading the Patriots to a 14-10 advantage. The team’s early efficiency underscored the algorithm’s prediction that New England was undervalued in this matchup.

Buffalo briefly grabbed a 16-14 lead in the third quarter following a fumbled handoff between Milton and Antonio Gibson, but the rookie quarterback rebounded quickly. Milton’s legs and poise helped drive New England into field goal range twice in the second half, with Joey Slye converting kicks from 41 and 42 yards to give the Patriots a 20-16 lead. A late Alex Erickson punt return set up another Slye field goal from 50 yards, pushing the lead to 23-16 and making it a two-score game against the spread.

Defensively, the Patriots were relentless. Rookie cornerback Marcellas Dial and practice squad standout Miles Battle made key plays in critical moments, including fourth-down stops in the fourth quarter to thwart Buffalo’s comeback attempts. The defense’s ability to stymie Mitchell Trubisky and the Bills’ offense in crunch time sealed the victory.

Ultimately, this game perfectly demonstrated the algorithm’s accuracy. By identifying the Patriots as favorites when the market viewed them as underdogs, the model delivered a winning bet with room to spare. Joe Milton’s breakout debut and a gritty team performance validated the analytics and capped the Patriots’ season on a high note, even if the win cost them the first overall pick in the draft.

Jets 32 Dolphins 20

Our algorithm projected the Jets as -5.5 favorites heading into this Week 18 matchup, so when the market listed them at Jets -1, it was clear this was a value bet. The Jets delivered a 32-20 victory over the Dolphins at MetLife Stadium, covering the spread and validating the algorithm’s sharp assessment in what became a one-sided affair after a slow start.

The Jets found their rhythm in the second quarter, with Aaron Rodgers leading the charge. Rodgers, who threw for 274 yards and a season-high four touchdowns, opened the scoring with his 500th career touchdown pass to Tyler Conklin. This milestone ignited the Jets, who scored 15 points in the quarter and forced three critical turnovers. Ashtyn Davis was the defensive star, intercepting Tyler Huntley twice—once flipping field position and another stopping a potential scoring drive in the end zone. A forced fumble by Haason Reddick, recovered by Quincy Williams, set up another Rodgers touchdown pass to Allen Lazard. A successful 2-point conversion by Breece Hall capped a dominant quarter, sending the Jets into halftime with a 15-6 lead.

The second half saw the Dolphins claw back within striking distance, cutting the lead to 25-20 after Huntley’s touchdown pass to Jonnu Smith. But the Jets’ offense responded when it mattered most. On third-and-6, Breece Hall broke free for a 17-yard gain to set up a goal-to-go situation, then iced the game two plays later with a 6-yard touchdown catch-and-run.

Milestones were aplenty in this game for New York. Rodgers joined an elite club with his 500th touchdown pass, Davante Adams surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the fifth straight season, Braelon Allen set the NFL record for most rushing yards by a player under 21, and Garrett Wilson joined Brandon Marshall as the only Jets players with 100 catches in a season.

The Jets finished the season at 5-12, and while this win over a division rival was satisfying, it also served as a stark reminder of how far this team has fallen. Despite a handful of bright individual performances, the organization remains mired in dysfunction. For bettors, however, the Jets’ win provided exactly what we needed to cash in on the algorithm’s edge, as Jets -1 proved to be one of the sharpest plays of the week.

To ensure the highest level of accuracy, we run our algorithm as close to game time as possible, factoring in real-time variables like weather conditions and last-minute injury updates.

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